Is Ukraine Soon to Erupt in Civil War?

Tensions continue to rise in Ukraine, where after months of anti-government protests three eastern regions have declared themselves independent republics and asked to join Russia. Several weeks ago, Crimea voted to separate from Ukraine and asked to join Russia, and over the weekend Donetsk and Luhansk followed suit. Both Ukraine and much of the Western world have contested the regions’ right to vote for self-rule and establish themselves as sovereign nations; however, such disputes have had little effect on the pro-Russian separatist movement’s growth.

Protests in Kiev, Ukraine, January 2014
Image: Sasha Maksymenko

Protests in Kiev, Ukraine, January 2014
Image: Sasha Maksymenko

Following the most recent developments, the Ukrainian government held a “national dialogue” of politicians and civic groups on Wednesday in an attempt to resolve some of the issues. The meeting was held in Kiev and saw little concrete progress, politicians and officials squabbling over policies and next steps.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims Ukraine is on the brink of “civil war,” which may very well be true. Oleksandr Turchynov, who is serving as Ukraine’s interim president, said that the government would be open to dialogue with anyone except “those who with weapons in their hand try to wage war on their own country.” However, the meeting on Wednesday did not include any rebel leaders. Some suggested holding the next roundtable in Donetsk, but many are concerned about the security risks of venturing into a pro-separatist region.

On the other hand, separatist leaders are unwilling to venture into Kiev, where they will likely face legal ramifications. “We haven’t received any offers to join a round table and dialogue,” said one insurgent leader in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin. “If the authorities in Kiev want a dialogue, they must come here. If we go to Kiev, they will arrest us.”

But some officials are arguing that the dialogues must somehow include separatist representatives. Nestor Shufrych of the Party of Regions argued that, “Without their participation, the roundtables will just be declarative.”

The seventh week of the 24/7 Ukrainian protests
outside London's Downing Street.
Image: Jordan Busson

Russia has been internationally accused of supporting and even encouraging Ukraine’s separatists, a claim that it denies. However, all eyes are on the Eastern European giant as the situation progresses. Though Russia has not immediately embraced the two most recent separatist regions, it has also asserted its right to intervene should it feel that ethnic Russians were under threat. Additionally, President Vladimir Putin has claimed that it would pull back thousands of troops stationed along the border, but thus far there has been little evidence of movement.

Meanwhile, clashes continue, with several incidents of violence already reported.